The El Niño weather pattern is projected to strengthen through 2027 and could potentially become the most powerful on record, heightening the likelihood of extreme weather events in the upcoming year, as stated by the World Meteorological Organization on Thursday.
Secretary-General of the WMO, Celeste Saulo, highlighted during a news briefing in Geneva that if the current trend persists, this El Niño could surpass any previous occurrences since monitoring began, indicating an unprecedented level of intensity.
The UN weather agency revealed that its forecasts indicate a nearly 100% probability of El Niño persisting until February 2027, driven by notably warm temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. This level of certainty in the forecast is unprecedented, according to the WMO.
A robust El Niño can have a significant impact on global rainfall and temperature patterns, potentially leading to extreme weather events such as typhoons.
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres emphasized the remarkable growth of El Niño, stating that the scientific evidence unequivocally shows that the Earth is entering uncharted territory with rising temperatures.
El Niño is a cyclical warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific caused by weakening trade winds. It occurs naturally every two to seven years, typically lasting up to 12 months and causing severe rainfall and droughts across Latin America.
The current El Niño event has already affected agricultural products in tropical regions, triggering a severe food crisis in Central America’s Dry Corridor.
The WMO anticipates that El Niño will peak towards the end of this year but its effects will extend into 2027, leaving behind elevated global temperatures. Saulo mentioned that the organization is enhancing preparedness and early warning initiatives in anticipation of these impacts.
“We are dedicated to collaborating closely with partners within the United Nations and humanitarian sectors to offer essential climate intelligence and insights to support disaster management and climate-sensitive industries such as agriculture, health, energy, and water resources,” stated Saulo.
Overall, the forecast for El Niño indicates a potentially record-breaking event that could have widespread implications for global weather patterns and climate-related sectors.