In the eyes of Russia, there is a belief that a state of war already exists with NATO allies. While no direct military conflict has arisen, this perception allows the Kremlin to allocate resources for conducting probing attacks on NATO defenses to assess vulnerabilities. Russia’s covert activities in Europe against NATO members include acts of sabotage such as targeting Polish railway lines, disrupting undersea cables in the Baltic Sea, and engaging in an increasingly aggressive campaign by the GRU to disrupt supply chains supporting Ukraine.
The primary goals for the Kremlin in these actions are to raise the costs for NATO’s military and economic aid to Ukraine, disrupt supply chains temporarily, and sow discord within Western nations. Despite these provocations, Russia has not crossed a threshold that would trigger a military response from NATO. The use of third-party proxies, often recruited via social media, provides Russia with deniability and flexibility in its actions, making it challenging to attribute these attacks directly to the Kremlin.
While these sabotage efforts across Europe lack meticulous coordination, they do not consistently align with the level of military and economic support provided to Ukraine by targeted countries. Notably, countries like Germany, France, and Poland, which offer substantial aid to Ukraine, have faced more physical attacks compared to the UK, despite the UK’s significant support to Ukraine since 2022. Russia’s interest in the UK is underscored by its investment in intelligence gathering, exemplified by recent incidents like the intrusion of the Yantar surveillance vessel in British waters.
Challenges for Russia arise from the disruption of its intelligence networks in Europe following the expulsion of diplomats in 2022, attributed to GRU connections. The rebuilding of these networks has forced Russia to rely on local proxies, diminishing the effectiveness and coordination of its operations. However, as Russia adapts and learns from these challenges, there remains a threat to non-military targets in Europe, including the UK.