Canadian exports to China surged by 30% in the first half of 2026, with total trade increasing by 3.6% compared to the previous year, according to data from Statistics Canada analyzed by researchers. The data, part of a recent report published by the Canada China Business Council and the University of Alberta’s China Institute, reflects the strengthening trade ties between the two nations amid Canada’s efforts to diversify its economy in light of strained relations with the U.S.
During the first half of 2026, the total trade in goods between Canada and China reached $66.6 billion, marking a 3.6% increase, while exports grew by 30% to $21.74 billion year over year. Energy and minerals were the primary drivers, constituting 58.4% of all Canadian exports to China during this period, with energy, particularly crude oil and liquefied propane, experiencing an 81.8% surge. Additionally, exports of metal ores and non-metallic minerals, such as copper ore, rose by 29%.
“This marks a record high for our first-half exports to China,” stated Bijan Ahmadi, the executive director of the Canada China Business Council. The notable increase in trade activity is attributed to various factors contributing to the recent boost.
The warming diplomatic and economic relations between Canada and China, following years of tension, have played a significant role in this uptick. Concurrently, amid escalating trade tensions with the U.S., Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has emphasized the country’s commitment to forging new trade agreements with other nations to reduce dependence on the U.S.
Moreover, factors such as the heightened capacity of the Trans Mountain Pipeline, enabling increased access to Western Canadian crude oil in Asia, and disruptions in oil shipments due to geopolitical conflicts like the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran have further facilitated the surge in Canadian oil exports.
Mark Maki, the CEO of Trans Mountain, anticipates that Asia will account for 70% of Canada’s oil exports by 2028, underscoring the region’s significance as a key market for Canadian energy products.
The first half of 2026 also witnessed a significant breakthrough in Canada-China relations, as Carney struck a deal with Chinese President Xi Jinping to allow a substantial number of Chinese electric vehicles into the Canadian market in exchange for tariff concessions on Canadian agricultural products. This agreement has led to a notable increase in agricultural prices, benefiting Canadian farmers.
While overall trade between the two countries has seen positive growth, imports from China to Canada have decreased by 5.8% year over year, resulting in a 25% reduction in Canada’s trade deficit with China. The decline in imports is partly attributed to the shift of certain manufacturing activities to countries like Vietnam.
In conclusion, the recent trade developments between Canada and China indicate a promising trajectory for bilateral relations, with opportunities for further expansion and diversification in trade activities. The future outlook remains positive, with Canada well-positioned to surpass its export targets to China by 2030, as indicated by the strong performance in the first half of 2026.