The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has adjusted its 2026 home sales forecast for the third time this year, with September data indicating a decline in sales nationwide. Initially anticipating a slight increase in home sales for 2026, CREA now projects a 5.2% decrease in home transactions compared to the previous year. This revision follows similar downward adjustments made in April and July.
The surge in oil prices since spring has led to higher bond yields, impacting fixed mortgage rates, as noted by CREA. While there was a minor uptick in monthly activity over the summer, CREA’s senior economist Shaun Cathcart predicts that rising oil prices and concerns about potential interest rate hikes by the Bank of Canada to combat inflation will deter more potential homebuyers in the remaining months of the year.
According to Cathcart, ongoing uncertainties, including U.S. tariffs and rising lending rates, have created a hesitant atmosphere among buyers. The current economic climate is causing many individuals to postpone major financial decisions like home purchases.
Royal LePage, a real estate firm, echoes similar sentiments from potential buyers, indicating a softer fall housing market due to global uncertainties. President and CEO Phil Soper highlights the impact of volatile communication from Washington on individuals’ willingness to engage in significant financial transactions like buying a home.
September witnessed a decline in home sales, with figures showing a 2.3% drop compared to August and a 7.7% decrease from the previous year. Additionally, newly listed properties decreased by 1.8% month-over-month, a trend observed since September 2025 according to CREA.
The national average home price stands at $666,538, marking a 1.6% decrease from the previous year. While markets in Vancouver and Toronto displayed weakness in September, regions like the Prairies, Quebec, and the East Coast, previously robust, are also experiencing a cooling off period.
Looking ahead, CREA anticipates a rebound in home sales next year under an optimistic scenario with limited rate changes by the Bank of Canada and increased borrower confidence in lending rates, projecting a 4.4% increase in home sales for 2027.