In 2026, Russia has seen a nearly 50% increase in its oil exports through the Northern Sea Route (NSR) compared to the previous year. Approximately 20 million barrels have been shipped to Asia from July to mid-October this year. The NSR, connecting Russia’s western ports with Asian markets through Arctic waters, is usually considered a risky and costly route but has become more attractive due to disruptions in other key routes like the Suez Canal and the Black Sea region.
Rising geopolitical tensions and conflicts have led to record-high tanker freight rates, making U.S. crude oil less accessible to Asian refiners. This situation has pushed Asian buyers to explore alternatives from the Middle East and Latin America, driving them towards the NSR despite the higher tariffs and the need for icebreaker assistance.
The NSR, under Russia’s control, offers a secure route compared to European waters where Russian oil tankers have faced seizures this year. It is projected that the volume of Russian oil transported through the Arctic route will increase by an additional five to 10 million barrels by the end of the navigation period.
Gazprom Neft, a major Russian oil company, plans to boost its NSR shipments by 35% this year compared to 2025. Apart from oil, Russia also transports significant amounts of liquid natural gas (LNG) and other goods via the NSR. President Vladimir Putin has set a target to double cargo turnover through the NSR to 70 million tonnes annually by the end of the decade, with the recent opening of Rosneft’s Vostok Oil project in northern Russia contributing to the growing volumes.